Q1 2026: Volatility in Historical Context

Thursday, April 23, 2026

Our latest research note examines what made Q1 2026 one of the most turbulent quarters in recent memory. The Straits of Hormuz blockade, announced on January 28, set off an oil price surge that ranks among the largest single-quarter supply shocks on record — WTI crude rose +82.8% and Brent +98.7% over the quarter, a move comparable in magnitude to the 1979 Iranian Revolution and exceeded historically only by the 1973 Arab Embargo. Unlike the Global Financial Crisis or COVID, however, this volatility appears to be catalyst-driven rather than rooted in systemic financial contagion — a distinction that has historically been associated with shorter, more contained market disruptions. Equity markets told a nuanced story: US large caps finished the quarter at −4.6% while small caps eked out a gain of +2.5%, and international markets continued their streak of outperforming US equities across all five quarters of the current administration. Deputy CIO Ram Gandikota’s full analysis, including historical comparisons and cross-asset data, is available below.

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